Week 10, Late Window: Advanced Reviews

The Lions win a shootout, Cowboys get a walkover, and the Seahawks barely nudge past the Commanders

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

ARI vs ATL

The Falcons are in full freefall, losers of three in a row, or five of the last six, or six of the last eight, after a two-win streak to open the season. Arthur Smith responded to recent adversity by doing what any great leader would do with the season on the line: He buried his team in value-neutral Bijan Robinson runs (95 yards on 22 carries), passing at a rate more than 20% below expectation (six more designed runs than dropbacks). Why try and win if you can lose slowly?