Week 10, Early Window: Advanced Reviews

The 49ers roll, the Browns steal one from the Ravens, and a rookie star continues to shine

The 49ers getting a good laugh at those who thought they lost elite status

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

NE vs IND (Frankfurt)

We didn’t send our finest offenses out to Europe this week. The teams scores on their first two drives, then went a little over two quarters of game-time before putting up any more points. The adjusted scores have the Patriots as slightly better than the Colts, with some special teams misses and an incredibly conservative game-plan holding down the Patriots upside.

The Patriots called more designed runs than passes, and passed up the chances to go-for-it on two fourth down opportunities, decisions that cost them 9.2% win probability. Their overall success rate was strong at 50.7%, but they had nothing in the way of big plays.

The Patriots did run the ball relatively well (+0.08 EPA per play), and Mac Jones continued his mistake-filled season, including the most costly play of the game, an interception targeting Mike Gesicki on the goal-line. Jones was benched for Bailey Zappe, who made a cringeworthy error on the fake-spike-turned-INT with fewer than 40 seconds remaining.

The Colts weren’t very good offensively either, and without a 4th & 1 touchdown conversion from Jonathan Taylor they probably don’t win the game at all. Garnder Minshew produced almost exactly in-line with expected points, while Jones and Zappe were negative. Jones has lost the most expected points to interceptions this season (-55 EPA).

BAL vs CLE

A wild turnaround in Baltimore gives the Browns the victory, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. With 11:12 left in the fourth quarter, the Browns facing 2nd & 15 from their own 20 yard-line, trailing by 14 points (31-17), their estimated win probability was less than 4%. Yet, overall the Ravens fundamentals weren’t better than the Browns, with roughly equal success rates, and the highest variance play of the game going in their favor (5.2 EPA, muffed punt recovery at the Browns 12).

Then the Browns marched the rest of the way down the field for a score, returned a Lamar Jackson interception for another touchdown on the second play of the Ravens next drive, missed the extra point, stopped the Ravens again in only 3:13 of game-time, then drove for the game-winning field goal.

The Browns comeback was part Ravens offensive meltdown, part defensive pressure, and partially the Browns offense showing the ability to get consecutive scores when needed, something that hasn’t been a feature in Cleveland for a long while.

The score might imply that the respective top defenses in the NFL were bad in this one, but both offenses were held down on pass plays. Jerome Ford runs were the biggest value generators for the Browns, adding 3.4 expected points (17 carries for 107 yards).

In the Ravens final four drives, they averaged 2.6 yards per play, including a pick-6 that cost them 30% win probability and 7.7 expected points. The Browns offense wasn’t great either, but Deshaun Watson was able to shake off his own costly mistake (pick-6 on his first pass, 7.8 expected points lost) to end up with +2.5 EPA on the day.