Week 10 Berlin & Early Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Colts-Falcons, Panthers-Saints, Bears-Giants, Texans-Jaguars, Dolphins-Bills, Vikings-Ravens, Jets-Browns and Bucs-Patriots

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

IND (-6.5) vs ATL

The Indianapolis Colts get the win in Berlin over the Atlanta Falcons with an overtime touchdown from Jonathan Taylor, one of three scores on a day when Taylor ran for 244 yards on 32 carries (+9.5 EPA). The Colts offense drove their overall 77th percentile efficiency on the back of the running game, with quarterback Daniel Jones and wide receiver Ashton Dulin also contributing +1.8 EPA on a couple runs.

I’m stealing myself for a week of Jonathan Taylor MVP talk, with none of the elite quarterbacks truly distinguishing himself.

The Falcons were able to keep the game close on the strength of their own running game, though their yardage totals were much lower, running 14 fewer plays. They also enjoyed special teams advantages, with the Colts missing a 53-yard field goal and extra point. The Colts punted on only 1-of-12 drives.

The Falcons couldn’t sustain drives, going 0-for-8 on third down conversions. The Falcons averaged 4.8 yards per play to the Colts at 7.0, with totals of 290 and 519 yards. But the Falcons did a better job at finishing drives, scoring touchdowns on all three of their trips to the red zone, while the Colts went 2-for-4.

Big negatives offset what was a decently productive passing and rushing day for Daniel Jones: He lost a fumble (-5.3 EPA) and took seven sacks (-8.3 EPA). Michael Penix also lost significant value to a fumble and three sacks, though not to the same degree.

CAR (-5.5) vs NO