Unexpected Points

Unexpected Points

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Unexpected Points
Week 10 Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE)
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Week 10 Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE)

Allen still No. 1, Dak approaching the top-5, maybe (a little) cold-ish water on Stroud's excellent rookie numbers

Kevin Cole's avatar
Kevin Cole
Nov 09, 2023
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Unexpected Points
Unexpected Points
Week 10 Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE)
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Bills QB Josh Allen's 1-Word Response on Playoff Hopes After Loss
The efficient Allen can’t hasn’t gotten enough support

Check out the first the first installment of the Luck-Adjusted Efficiency numbers (free post) to get more details on the methodology below. I also have lots of information in past posts on Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE):

  • AQE introduction

  • Update to 2.0

  • Updated to 3.0

  • All previous write-ups

ESPN (finally) dropped its receiver tracking-based metrics on a new analytics website. Due to controversy and some issues that I have with the methodology, I’ve decided to exclude them from the calculation this year. I think mental adjustments for perceived receiver quality is more usual than using questionable “open” scores. Plus, I already incorporate YAC above expected into the analysis, which captures some of the receiver qualities that boost quarterback results.

2023 LUCK-ADJUSTED RESULTS

The plot below shows each quarterback who has dropped back to pass 120 times this season. There are two points for each quarterback: 1) The team-colored dot for the actual EPA per play the quarterback has this season and 2) The quarterback headshot representing the adjusted quarterback efficiency (EPA/play). There is also a team-colored line linking the two on each row.

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