Week 1 TNF Chiefs-Ravens: Advanced Review

The Chiefs win by a toe, putting them in pole position for the No. 1 seed in the AFC

If only Isaiah Likely wore slightly smaller cleats

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

KC-BAL

Unsurprisingly, the adjusted saw this contest as much closer than the final score, as the game ultimately ended an Isaiah Likely big toe away from a potential tieing, or even winning, touchdown. The model doesn’t watch the final drive to make its conclusion, rather leaning on the Ravens’ significantly higher success rate on a play-by-play, plus their material disadvantage in inherently high-variance penalty and special teams EPA (-2.6 EPA alone from a 53-yard missed Justin Tucker field goal attempt).

My subjective perception watching the game was a more dominant performance by the Chiefs, despite the game being close at the end. While the Ravens ended up oh-so-close to a last-second touchdown, the game’s win probability was always significantly in favor of the Chiefs down the stretch. Even a score at that point in the game would have set up, at best, a 50-50 try at a 2-point conversion and win. Going to overtime in Kansas City would put the odds at sub-50%.

The other reason the game felt - to me at least - in more control for the Chiefs was their relative advantage passing the ball. The Chiefs dropback EPA was in the 90th percentile, with a success rate at 56.2%. Their overall success rate, which influences their adjusted score down, was severely impaired by the lack of running success. The Chiefs called run plays fairly often (40% of plays), but their pass rate was still over expectation when accounting for them having a lead on nearly every possession.

The Ravens’ offense, on the other hand, ended with nearly opposite numbers: a strong designed run game, weaker dropback success, but dropping back over 70% of the time to make up the score deficit.

Derrick Henry had 13 designed runs that generated +2.2 EPA (62% success rate). Whereas Isiah Pacheco’s 17 runs lost a massive -5.3 EPA (18%). It didn’t end up determining the final result, but I wasn’t a huge fan of the Chiefs second-half gameplan of running for minimal gains on early down and then waiting for Patrick Mahomes to bail them out on third down.

Speaking of Mahomes, his efficiency in this game puts him on the path towards another MVP, averaging +0.42 EPA, +4.2% CPOE, despite losing 3.8 EPA on an ill-advised throw and interception on 1st & 10 with 1:50 left in the second quarter.

The Chiefs offense spread the distribution of targets, taking what the Ravens defense gave them. Six Chiefs receiving options generated positive EPA on their targets, with Rachee Rice and Travis Kelce leading the way (+4.2 & +3.5 EPA on nine and four targets, respectively). Mahomes’ numbers could have been even better if not for a few drops by his receivers in crucial spots, something that happens more often in night games in Kansas City than anywhere else.

Lamar Jackson finished with superficially poor efficiency (0 EPA, -3.7% CPOE), but those rate stats mask the degree to which the Ravens needed Jackson to accomplish anything offensively. Jackson’s 41 pass attempts topped his total in every game over since 2022 except one, and he combined that with massive ground usage: 10 scrambles and seven designed runs. Jackson’s weaker EPA total also accounts for -5.6 EPA on a single play, a Chris Jones strip-sack caused by a breakdown in protection.