The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2026-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
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** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
Rams (-3.5) vs 49ers (Melbourne)
This result has to be seen as somewhat of a shocker. While the typical Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers matchup would be viewed as a contest between near equals, including two of the best coaches in the NFL, the hype surrounding the offseason moves for the Rams placed them as the Super Bowl favorites by a good margin going into Week 1. Internal advanced analytics point to some positives for the Rams, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Yet, the 49ers offense was able to thoroughly dominate the Rams’ defense — the unit that was supposed to ascend into elite status this year.
In non-garbage time (win probability < 99%), the Rams offense posted a respectable 44.4% success rate, though nowhere close to 60.3% from the 49ers. That 99% win probability threshold was breached by the 49ers with around 11 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, after Tyler Higbee fumbled away a 2nd & 2 conversion, the most negative play of the game by EPA (-5.4). A handful of other outsized negatives capped the Rams offensive efficiency, including a failed 4th & inches conversion on the goal-line (-3.8), a Matthew Stafford interception in the mid-second quarter targeting Puka Nacua on 3rd & 10 (-3.0) and a garbage-time 4th & 5 failure in the fourth quarter (-2.8).
In addition to negative plays that discounted efficiency for the Rams offense, they suffered from an absence of big plays on the positive side of the ledger. Only three plays exceeded +2 EPA the entire game. Their biggest EPA gain came on a defensive pass interference call (+2.9) with their win probability already down at 4%, another was deep in garbage time (4th & 2 conversion, +2.4) and the last was a 41-yard catch-and-run from Nacua in the first quarter (+2.7).
The 49ers didn’t light things up with big plays, but Brock Purdy did connect on a 39-yard touchdown to Demarcus Robinson (+4.1 EPA) and steadily gained yards on the ground and through the air. A pivotal difference in performance came on high-leverage late downs (3rd & 4th), with the Rams only converting 2-of-9 (-7.1 EPA) versus the 49ers going 7-of-12 (+1.5 EPA).
49ers running backs Kaelon Black and Christian McCaffrey generated +3.0 EPA on 24 designed runs (133 yards, 5.5 YPC), whereas the Rams’ backs posted -0.8 EPA, and then their team efficiency was crushed with Stafford’s failed sneak on 4th down (-3.8 EPA).
While the Rams’ big offseason addition Myles Garrett was absent from the box score (zero sacks, zero tackles), the 49ers’ pickup of Mike Evans paid immediate dividends. Evans led all receivers with +8.2 EPA on his seven targets. The giant receiver was nearly unstoppable as the 49ers’ preferred third-down target, with five of his six catches leading to conversions.
