Week 1 Sunday, Late Window & SNF: Advanced Game Reviews

An impressive start for Jordan Love, Tua & Tyreek keep it going, the Giants implode, and the Rams are back(?)

No slowing down or regression for Tua and Tyreek

Find the early window advanced reviews here

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

CHI vs GB

It won’t come as much consolation to Bears’ fans, but the fundamentals of their near-blowout loss to the Packers weren’t as dire as the final score. Late-down (3rd & 4th) results are the highest leverage, and highest variance plays in most games. The Packers absolutely destroyed the Bears on the handful of plays needed for conversions, to the tune of a 27-point advantage in EPA.

Jordan Love completed a 35-yard touchdown to Aaron Jones on 4th & 3, and converted 3rd downs needing 13, 10, 8, 8 and 6 yards. While the Justin Fields threw a pick-6 on 3rd & 11, failed to convert a 4th & 1, and was sacked twice on 3rd and less than five yards to go.

Love had one of the best performance of the week in advanced-metric efficiency, hitting the 95th percentile at 0.55 EPA per play, stretching the field with a 10.2-yard aDOT and avoiding negatives, outside of a single sack. It’s early to declare Love the answer in Green Bay, with so many high leverage plays going his way, playing a poor opponent, and relatively low volume.

The Bears passing game took a big step up in terms of volume. Fields’ 38 pass attempts were nine more than he threw in any game last season. But he still had training wheels on, averaging only 3.1 air-yards per attempt. The negatives were killers, though you could see four sacks on 49 dropbacks as an improvement from Godawful to bad.

SEA vs LA

The Rams are back? Well, they at least were for this week. Specifically, Matthew Stafford returned to his MVP-adjacent form from 2021, carving up the Seahawks secondary all day, committing zero turnover and taking zero sacks.

The Seahawks, at least offensively, were a bit unlucky on high leverage downs, converting only 2-9 late downs, while the Rans went 12-18, including 1-1 on fourth down. They were generally successful on a play-by-play basis, but couldn’t get the conversions and big plays to drive offensive points.