Week 1 Sunday Late Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Chargers-Raiders, Seahawks-Broncos, Browns-Cowboys and Buccaneers-Commanders

Mike Evans is making a strong case for the HoF as his connection with Baker Mayfield grows

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

LAC-LV

The game looks closer by the adjusted score, mostly because the Chargers separated from the Raiders on the latter’s turnover, not their own offensive success. The Raiders posted 5th percentile EPA efficiency, hurt by two fumbles and an interception (total -15.9 EPA).

At least for Week 1, the Chargers leaned into the run game, and they did it well. The Bolts passed at a rate 7.6% under expectation, and hit the 61st percentile in run efficiency. The Chargers had the seventh highest pass rate over expectation last year, and were dead last in rushing efficiency. Perhaps Jim Harbaugh is working a little of his magic in turning the Chargers into a run-first operation.

You might assume the Raiders would like to use a similar formula of running the ball, but the results couldn’t have been worse in this game. The Raiders dropped back to pass on nearly 70% of plays (1.3% over expectation), and were close to the worst running EPA efficiency in the last two seasons. Zamir White lost more than an expected point for each of his 13 designed runs.