Week 1 Sunday Early Window, Part Two: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Colts-Texans, Dolphins-Jaguars, Saints-Panthers and Giants-Vikings

CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson left us well entertained, hopefully for the first of many AFC South clashes

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

IND-HOU

An enticing matchup of last year’s No. 2 and 3 picks lived up to the hype. Now, neither team breached a 50% success rate offensively, but the Colts’ and Texans’ overall EPA efficiencies were at the 63rd and 85th percentiles, respectively.

More than anything, the game produced a number of shareable social media moments, including three 50-plus yard completions for Anthony Richardson, two that were touchdowns. Those passes weren’t all YAC produced, totalling 134 yards in the air.

Both teams also ran the ball well, and each passed at a rate below expectation, showing consistency with how the Texans operated their passing offense last season with C.J. Stroud.