The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
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** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
Panthers vs Bears (-3)
Wheels-up for the Chicago Bears offense and Caleb Williams’ MVP hopes. The Bears drop an absurd 59 points on the road against the Carolina Panthers. But the adjusted scores weren’t quite so impressed with the results. The Bears’ offense success rate of 53% wasn’t spectacular, though it was skewed heavily to dropback passing quality, with that phase of the offense gaining EPA at a 65% rate.
The Bears rushing offense was also strong, with D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai combined for 224 yards and four touchdowns on 28 carries (+11.7 EPA) and Williams adding 65 yards on two scores on scrambles and designed runs (+3.4 EPA), with a 4th & 1 sneak failure mitigating gains.
The Panthers offense wasn’t too shabby, but eventually fizzled out with a late fourth down failure and fumble loss allowing the Bears to separate down the stretch. The Panthers just couldn’t get the Bears offense off the field on third, as they converted 10-of-14 chances (71% versus an expected 46% based on yards to gain and field position), gaining +13 EPA on late downs.
Williams set new career highs this week in EPA per play (+0.55), total epa (+23.6), EPA via air yards (+13.8) and completion percentage over expected (+16.6%). Williams consistently pushed the ball down the field, reflected in his 11-yard average depth of target.
I’m skeptical that this week was the beginning of an extremely rare fourth-year breakout for Bryce Young, after ranking 31st, 24th and 26th in EPA efficiency his prior seasons. That said, this was a solid game and Young certainly wasn’t the problem.
Bengals (-3.5) vs Bucs
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers tried to give the game away early with three first half fumbles, then a combination of poor defense from the Cincinnati Bengals and an egregiously bad Joe Burrow pick-6 brought the Bucs back into the game. Ultimately, another Baker Mayfield fumble in the fourth quarter was too much for the Bucs to overcome, losing a total of 20.7 expected points on their four giveaways.
Both teams posted strong offensive success rates, with productive running games and good dropback success, when holding onto the ball. Mike Gesicki was the surprise star of the Bengals receiver corps, turning seven targets into 78 yards and a score (+6.9 EPA), while Ja’Marr Chase finished with only 12 yards on four targets.
