Week 1 SNF Lions-Rams: Advanced Review

The Lions win despite their highly paid quarterback, a formula that will work until it doesn't

David Montgomery scores the winning touchdown in overtime, preventing the Rams from having a chance to answer

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

DET-LA

The adjusted scores model sees the Lions as slightly lucky with this one. Having the adjusted score differential close to zero makes sense as the Lions needed overtime to get the win, and the old overtime rules meant the Rams never got a chance to answer the Lions touchdown.

The Lions had a slightly higher success rate offensively, and marginally better EPA per play. The adjusted scores give an advantage to high efficiencies produced through the air, viewing the Lions’ 98th percentile rushing efficiency (+0.32 EPA per) with skepticism of sustainability. The Lions leaned on the run (8.3% pass rate under expectation), which was wise as they lost 0.1 expected points per dropback.