Week 1 MNF Jets-Bills: Advanced Game Review

The Jets pull off a miracle victory without Aaron Rodgers, with YOLO Josh Allen backfiring

The Aaron Rodgers era in New York looks over almost before it started

Find here the early window advanced reviews and late window and SNF

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

NYJ vs BUF

Aaron Rodgers’ season-ending achilles injury casts a pall over the entire evening and this analysis. Whatever you think of Rodgers as a person, which has increasingly (unfortunately) become a political litmus test, he was, unquestionably, one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. My GOAT methodology ranked Rodgers just outside of the top-5 most valuable quarterbacks ever. It’s was nearly impossible for Rodgers to get into the top-3, even with a few great seasons to come. But he was likely to get into the top-5 with even one above-average season, and my Bayesian projections had him as the No. 4 quarterback in the NFL coming into this season. Recovery from an achilles tear while turning 40 later this season is a recipe few can come back from effectively. I’ll have more later today assessing the Jets’ options to replace Rodgers, and where they stack up versus backup Zach Wilson.