Week 1 MNF Bears-Vikings: Advanced Review

The Vikings offense was dormant for three quarters before a late explosion leading to victory

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

CHI vs MIN (-1.5)

The Minnesota Vikings made a huge comeback to win, in what was a tremendous offensive struggle until the fourth quarter. Only one of the Vikings first nine drives produced a first down, as they were sitting on three points until almost 48 minutes of game-clock had passed.

On the flip side, the Chicago Bears offense was choppy all night, finishing with a marginally lower success rate than the Vikings (37.5% vs 41.4%), winning turnover and late-down value accumulation, but suffering a massive -10.7 EPA disadvantage in special teams and penalties. That disadvantage was driven up by a 50-yard missed field goal (-3.4 EPA) to start the fourth quarter and the Bears more than doubling the Vikings penalty yardage (127 to 50).