Week 1 Late Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Broncos-Titans, Seahawks-49ers, Packers-Lions and Rams-Texans

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

DEN (-7.5) vs TEN

Even considering the difficulty of the matchup, this was an inauspicious start for No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward on the road against the Denver Broncos. In Ward’s defense, running the ball also wasn’t working for the Carolina Panthers offense. At least the team can take some solace from the fact that their defense held down the Broncos offense.

The Titans 22% offensive success rate would have ranked as the fourth lowest for any offensive during the entire 2024 season. Their passing success rate of 16.7% was worse than any team posted all of last year. The Titans hit the 2nd percentile in offensive efficiency (-0.43 EPA per play), and that’s with only a bad-but-not-horrific two turnovers.

The two biggest impact plays of the game were an interception and strip sack from Bo Nix, dragging down the Broncos’ passing offense. The third most impactful play was a muffed punt from Marvin Mims, which set the Titans up in field-goal range down only one point. Somehow the Titans moved backwards 25 yards and got zero points on the drive. The Titans had drives totaling 0, 0, -3, -4, -6, and -25 yards in the game.

We can’t write off Ward after one awful game, but rookie performance does matter a lot in projecting career success. One positive is that Ward did try and stretch the field with a 10.5-yard aDOT, even if it only led to 12 completions on 28 attempts.

SEA vs SF (-2.5)