Week 1 Friday Night Packers-Eagles (Brazil): Advanced Review

Eagles pull through in a sloppy game full of big plays, with a little help from fourth down decisions by their coach

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

GB-PHI

The lower-success-rate, high-scoring dynamic of the game appeared to be a combination of how the teams fundamentally played and the slippery field conditions in Sao Paulo. The soft grass made it more difficult to have consistent success, but also opened up longer runs and YAC plays with the defenders at a disadvantage reacting to the ball-carrier’s moves.

The Eagles offense was much more successful than the Packers on a play-by-play basis (47% success rate to 39%), and a +10.9 advantage in special teams and penalties helped mitigate the negatives of turnovers and giving up big plays on third downs, including a 70-yard touchdown by Jayden Reed on 3rd & 10.

The Eagles box score on the ground looked fantastic, totaling 144 rushing yards and two touchdowns. But the efficiency metrics tell a different story. A Jalen Hurts fumble lost while rushing on 3rd & 5 was massively negative (-4.5 EPA), and a late failed attempt by Hurts to score from the 1-yard line took another big chunk out of the Eagles rushing value (-1.9 EPA).

Saquon Barkley was the star of the night, though even his 109 rushing yards and two scores on the ground didn’t come at positive efficiency overall (-0.7 EPA). Barkley was the Eagles most valuable receiver, helping them generate +3.2 EPA on only two targets, most importantly an 18-yard touchdown catch on 2nd & 11 in the second quarter to give the Eagles the lead.

The Packers had better overall efficiency, driven by the rushing success of players not named Josh Jacobs. The most impactful running play came on a 33-yard touchdown from Jayden Reed, and fourth-string running back Emanuel Wilson averaged nearly 12 yards per carry on his four attempts (+3.2 EPA).