Week 1 Early Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Falcons-Bucs, Browns-Bengals, Colts-Dolphins, Jags-Panthers, Patriots-Raiders, Saints-Cardinals, Jets-Steelers and Commanders-Giants

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

ATL vs TB (-1)

The adjusted scores saw the Atlanta Falcons as the better team, with a marginally better offensive success rate (44% to 39%) and yards per play (5.0 to 4.6). The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the game by being slightly better on the downs where it counts (converted 50% of third downs and 1-for-1 on fourth versus 40% and 1-for-2).

Most people will likely remember the game-tying miss from Younghoe Koo as time expired, but the Bucs also suffered a missed kick in earlier this game that cost them even more in EPA loss (because of the field position gain for the opponent post-kick).

Bijan Robinson had a big game receiving in this contest, but the Falcons were horrible on the ground, losing -0.51 EPA per designed run, without losing any big value chunks to fumbles. Robinson and Tyler Allgeier combined for 48 rushing yards on 22 carries (2.2 YPC). The Bucs weren’t good on the ground, but significantly better than their opponents.

Both teams passed the ball well, but the Falcons didn’t do much through the air, with 190 of Michael Penix Jr.’s 298 passing yards coming after the catch, including 52 yards from Robinson on his 50-yard touchdown reception.

Both quarterbacks were great by superficial EPA per play, but Baker Mayfield had the more impressive distribution down the field, which should show up in superior adjusted efficiency when I publish next week.

CLE vs CIN (-5.5)