Trevor Lawrence breaks the bank: Is he worth it?

A disappointing start to a career with sky-high expectations was still enough to make Trevor Lawrence the highest paid QB in the NFL

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The news came down yesterday that the Jacksonville Jaguars signed Trevor Lawrence to a five-year extension worth $275 million, or $55 million per season. Importantly, the length of the contract includes two additional years: Lawrence final rookie-contract season and the fifth-year option, which combine for a cost of a little over $31 million. Pro Football Talk has the preliminary cash-flow details, and the numbers put him roughly in-line with the standard-bearing extensions for Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow that were signed last year.

The specifics of the extension are less important to the future of the Jaguars franchise than exactly who Lawrence will end up being, so far a tantalizing prospect who has flashed repeatedly, without putting it all together for a full season. Important context to Lawrence’s results in his first three seasons include his baptism into the NFL under the dysfunctional Urban Meyer regime and a lack of receiving weapons versus the wealth of talent available to some others.

The most important piece of positive context is that he’s objectively outplayed his numbers, concretely laid out by the Unexpected Points’ adjusted quarterback efficiency (AQE) numbers for the past two seasons. Accounting for the lack of yards-after-catch value provided by his receivers and scheme, poor fumble-recovery luck and one of the toughest schedules of opposing pass defenses moves Lawrence’s EPA-per-play ranking in 2023 from middle of the league (13th) to fourth best, behind only Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott and Josh Allen. Lawrence’s efficiency adjustment for 2022 saw a similar rise, all the way to fifth best after accounting for especially poor luck with receiver drops.

The numbers I’m presenting below do not account for adjustments, as I only have the charting data going back a couple seasons and can’t make the equivalent changes to the majority of quarterbacks in the data. Basically, keep in mind that Lawrence’s numbers for EPA per play are probably too low.

LAWRENCE LOOKS AVERAGE BY HISTORICAL COMPARISON