Travis Kelce is a Lock for the Hall of Fame, But Rob Gronkowski is Still the GOAT

Using the NFL Plus/Minus valuation framework to quantify the values of two all-time great tight ends

The Kansas City Chiefs are champions again, logging a second title for MVP Patrick Mahomes, but also another feather in the potential GOAT cap of Travis Kelce. It’s become “a thing” in the last year or for some to question if Kelce could be, or even outright declare that Kelce is the greatest tight end of all time. I would say the unofficial title for tight end GOAT had been given to Rob Gronkowski, a force in the passing and rushing game for the New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

I’m sure most readers are familiar with recency bias, and it would have been acceptable to question if Gronkowski’s GOAT status was a product of him being more in the forefront of our minds as compared to other Hall-of-Fame tight ends who played decades earlier. I investigated this as part of a podcast episode last summer, and found that the era-adjusted statistical case for Gronkowski was strong, even if we ignore run blocking, which we know was one of his strengths relative to other great receiving tight ends.

The fact that Kelce is now being touted as potentially greater than Gronkowski, only a year removed from the latter’s retirement, could almost be labeled recency bias on steroids. In a world of expanding debate shows and social media dominance, elite player performances not even a decade removed can become distant memories.

Yes, Kelce has accumulated a number of impressive counting stats in recent years, giving him the fourth most receiving yards ever for a tight end (a thousand more than Gronkowski), and he also posted the most receiving yards by a tight end in a season (2020, Kelce’s 2022 ranking 4th). Kelce’s historical ascension in the minds of football observers is likely driven by his association with, perhaps, the greatest offensive stretch of football ever for the Chiefs. The departure of Tyreek Hill this season made Kelce the one receiver constant for Patrick Mahomes, and the only elite receiver he needed to win another MVP.

Recently, I introduced the NFL Plus/Minus metric, which harnesses the power of historical on-off splits and player clustering to provide the best estimates of player value in the most comparable denomination: points added with their presence on the field. NFL Plus/Minus assigns a concrete point estimate for the value provided by every player in every facet of the game. For tight ends, their value is primary from receiving (i.e. presence on the field route running), run blocking and pass blocking. I was able to apply the analysis to all player season from 2006 to present, which encapsulates the entire careers of Gronkowski and Kelce. For more details of the NFL Plus/Minus methodology, read the introductory analysis. Or check out the 2022 numbers for all offensive and defensive players.

There will always be a debate between those who value longevity or peak play, so below I’ll present the top seasons, peaks and total value added for Kelce and Gronkowski and other elite tight ends during their careers.

MOST VALUABLE TIGHT END SEASONS (SINCE 2006)