TNF Advanced Review, The end for Zach Wilson (in New York)

The Jets playoff hopes are on life support, and this should be the end for Zach Wilson as starter

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2022 Adjusted Scores are available to subscribers via Google Sheet. Check them out. I welcome your feedback.

Jags keep rolling, Jets on the ropes

Let’s go ahead and start with the playoff implications, as the game itself didn’t give us a lot to analyze from a competitive standpoint. The Jets playoff chances dropped from 25% to 10% with the loss, and at 7-8 they need help to get it. Even if the Jets win both of their remaining games against the Seahawks and Dolphins, they only have a coin flip’s chance at the playoffs.

The Jaguars playoff picture is easier to dissect. They need to win out to have the best chance to make the playoffs, facing the Texans next week before the Titans in Week 18. There are ways to get in even if they lose one of those games, but the overwhelming majority of their paths to the playoffs are with two wins, a final record of 9-8 and the AFC South Division title.

Trevor Lawrence had another strong performance, and up against the third strongest defense according to my power rankings. He did most of his damage on the ground, accumulating 9.1 EPA on designed runs and scrambles, but had negative EPA outside of that, mostly due to an opening possession strip sack that was the most impactful play of the game (-5.1 EPA).

Zach Wilson had another struggle session, posting sub-fifth percentile efficiency, and displaying the inaccuracy that has become his defining quality (-10.7 CPOE) Wilson led seven Jets drives that resulted in five punts, one desperation interception to end the half, and somehow three points on a three-and-out.

Chris Streveler took the reins with three minutes remaining in the third quarter, with the Jets win probability already down to 10% after opening the game as 2.5-point favorites. The Jets offense was immediately recharged and more dynamic with Streveler’s ability to move the ball on the ground (nine carries for 54 yards). Unfortunately, Streveler’s three drives didn’t result in any points, two stopped on downs and one killed by a Garrett Wilson fumble. The Jets averaged 5.1 yards per play on those drives, nearly double the team’s 2.8 yards per play prior.

There wasn’t hugely impactful fourth down decision in this game, though Doug Pederson’s love for kicking field goals into a strong wind was curious, to say the least.

Computer Cowboy @benbbaldwin

The Jaguars called a timeout to stop the clock and then kick a field goal on 4th & inches in this weather? I'm confused

The end for Zach Wilson in NYC?