The QB GOAT Series: 44-42

Three quarterbacks with later-career surges, all peaking with MVP-level play

I wrote up the methodology for how I measure quarterback career value and highlighted a few honorable mentions in a post last week.

I don’t agree 100% with all the rankings, but the beauty of stats-based analysis is that we can take representative data from nearly one million of quarterback dropbacks over nearly a century of the modern NFL to rank-order quarterbacks by value. Good luck watching, grading and comparing every quarterback snap from 1947 to 2022 and then forming your own film-watcher list.

I’m going to take this list in smallish chucks, going three-at-a-time until I get to the final two, who you might be able to guess, though the ordering may remain a mystery.

Links to past posts:

• 50-48, 47-45

No. 44: ROMAN GABRIEL

Regular: 37th, Peak: 33rd, Playoffs: 69th

Roman Gabriel was one of the greatest college prospects in football history, though before the memory of most current observers. A two-time All-American and ACC Player of the Year for North Carolina State, Gabriel was such a dominant force for the Wolfpack that his jersey was retired immediately after his senior season. Gabriel was 6’5”, 220 pounds, known for tremendous arm strength and also played baseball. Gabriel was the first and second overall picks in the 1926 AFL and NFL draft, respectively, in a class that included Hall-of-Famers Merlin Olsen and Lance Alworth, plus John Hadl (QB GOAT No. 47) and 1961 Heismann trophy winner Ernie Davis.

Gabriel chose to join the NFL’s Los Angeles Rams instead of the AFL’s Oakland Raiders, a decisions that may have hurt his prospect for early career success. In Gabriel’s first four seasons he less than half of the Rams games (23 of 56), only getting spot starts when the underwhelming Zeke Bratkowski and Bill Munson were struggling. Even in limited action, it was obvious that Gabriel gave his team the best chance to win (11-11-1 as starter versus 4-27-2 for others), but he didn’t become the full-time starter until 1996, when George Allen took over as head coach. Over the next six seasons the Rams had winning records with Gabriel starting every game, going a combined 57-24-5, though only making the playoffs twice. In Gabriel’s era, the NFL’s only took a quarter of the league into the postseason, versus near half (43.75%) in the current format.

The peak of Gabriel’s career came in 1969, winning MVP and being named First-Team All-Pro. Gabriel slightly trailed passing efficiency leader Craig Morton than season, but played one more game and attempted nearly 100 more passes. What’s intriguing about the components of Gabriel’s efficiency is that the rocket-armed quarterback was well behind other in yards per attempt, but had the league’s lowest interception and sack rates, while throwing the most passing touchdowns. Gabriel was great at avoiding mistakes, despite the high volume of his passing. Gabriel led the NFL in pass attempts twice, while posting better than average interception in every season.

Gabriel started to physically deteriorate in the 1972 season, missing games for the first time in his career. After a switch and head coach and trade to bring in John Hadl at quarterback, Gabriel was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles. Gabriel had a strong bounceback year in 1972, leading the NFL in attempts, completions, yards and lowest interception rate. Gabriel threw an absurb 470 passes (the next closest was Jim Plunkett’s 376), constantly trailing with poor surrounding talent. Gabriel probably deserved MVP hype that season, but his 5-8-1 team record precluded consideration, though the record was indication of Gabriel’s value after finishing with two wins the previous year.

Gabriel’s running gifts weren’t fully utilized during his career, but he was a short-yardage weapon, scoring 30 rushing touchdowns. Gabriel ended up using his athletic gifts and size mostly buying time in the pocket and discarding oncoming rushers. He was a physical force on par with someone like Josh Allen of this era.

Gabriel is hurt, fairly severely, in the QB GOAT methodology with the lack of playoff success. He’s clearly an example of small sample, with only two appearances in the postseason, playing a number of seasons for subpar teams, and barely missing the playoffs in multiple years. That context aside, Gabriel wasn’t great in his two playoffs starts, both games pasting around 3.4 ANY/A, more than 1.5 yards worse than his career efficiency. An outsized sack rate of 11.3% really killed Gabriel’s efficiency, which was out of character for his career sack avoidance (7.4%).

No. 43: RICH GANNON

Regular: 43rd, Peak: 36th, Playoffs: 50th