The QB GOAT Series: 38-36

Two playoff out-performers, one riding three Super Bowls to the Hall of Fame. Plus, one of the most talented quarterbacks ever

I wrote up the methodology for how I measure quarterback career value and highlighted a few honorable mentions in a post last week.

I don’t agree 100% with all the rankings, but the beauty of stats-based analysis is that we can take representative data from nearly one million of quarterback dropbacks over nearly a century of the modern NFL to rank-order quarterbacks by value. Good luck watching, grading and comparing every quarterback snap from 1947 to 2022 and then forming your own film-watcher list.

I’m going to take this list in smallish chucks, going three-at-a-time until I get to the final two, who you might be able to guess, though the ordering may remain a mystery.

Links to past posts:

• 50-48, 47-45, 44-42, 41-39

No. 38: BERT JONES

Regular: 36th, Peak: 24th, Playoffs: 66th

Bert Jones was a College-Football-Hall-of-Fame level prospect and the second overall pick (first quarterback) in the 1973 NFL draft for the Baltimore Colts as an heir apparent to the legendary Johnny Unitas, who retired the same offseason. Jones’ career began slowly, starting five games as a rookie and eight in his second season. It was also a mistake-prone beginning, throwing 24 interceptions on 378 total attempts and taking sacks near a 12% rate of dropbacks. Jones led the NFL in sack yards in 1974, despite only starting those eight games.

In 1975-1977, it all came together for Jones, with Ted Marchibroda taking over coaching duties and Jones mitigating the downsides of his game while producing elite upsides. Jones still took a lot of sacks, but the rate declined to 6.2% from double-digits, and his touchdown rate jumped roughly 5.5% with nearly 8 yards per attempt.

Jones’ 1976 regular-season campaign was the seventh most valuable in the history of professional football, according to the QB GOAT methodology. Jones led the NFL in passing yards at the highest ANY/A, and the component breakdown of his efficiency was elite across the board: he ranked second in yards per attempt, second in touchdown percentage, second-lowest interception percentage, second in yards per completion, and improved his sack rank to 12th lowest. Jones was selected MVP, Offensive Player of the Year and First-Team All-Pro. Jones followed up his MVP season with another elite year in 1977, earning Second-Team All-Pro honors. Jones was second in passing efficiency and threw nearly 397 passes, nearly a hundred more than First-Team selection Bob Griese.

Jones suffered a separated shoulder in the final preseason game for the 1978 season, and missed several games over the next two years trying to recuperate. At the time, there were no MRIs to diagnose the problem, so Jones would rest until he felt better, play well, then have to take more time off due to pain. Jones’ value became readily apparent by the Colts’ success with and without him, going 5-2 during 1978 and 1979 in games he started, 5-20 without him. Jones returned to play 30 or 32 games during the 1980 and 1981 seasons, but he never fully recovered from injury. His roughly 5 ANY/A over those years was half-a-yard per dropback better than league average, but not enough to the Colts’ poor defensive play (ranked 22nd and 28th in defensive efficiency).

With better playoff performances, Jones could have narrowly slid into the Hall of Fame on the back of his incredibly strong peak and reputation, but the Colts were one-and-done in 1975, 1976 and 1977. Jones didn’t play particularly well in any game, but we was under a lot of pressure to make plays with the Colts defense surrendering an average of 35 points per game in the playoffs.

I don’t weigh reputation based on the opinions of players formally in this analysis, but it is still evidence. I wouldn’t move a player up or down significantly based on the words of others, but Jones has received a lot of praise over the years. Bill Belichick said it would be hard to put any quarterback above Jones as a pure passer and athlete and that nobody had a better arm, and Ernie Accorsi said that Jones cold have been the greatest ever under different circumstances. Jones was also renown for his toughness, which probably contributed to his elevated sack rate, and the injuries that derailed his career. At the very least, we can be confident Jones was a product of a system that accumulated value over time, but a real talent with multi-year MVP upside.

No. 37: CHARLIE CONERLY

Regular: 53rd, Peak: 43rd, Playoffs: 17th