The Consensus NFL Mock Draft: Version 1.0

Harnessing data from hundreds of mock drafts via Grinding the Mocks to give the most complete picture of where players are likely to be drafted

Now that we’re entering the post-Championship, pre-Super Bowl lull, it’s officially mock draft #szn. I’ve never been a big fan of the mock-draft industrial complex, but as they say: “If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em.”

At the risk of sounding immodest, I believe my data-driven process for this mock produced something more packed with information than any you’ll find anywhere out on the draft-prediction streets. It doesn’t have the details of “why” on every player selection or my personal opinions on the various prospects. But it does have the benefit of the wisdom of crowds, and a layer of uncertainty you’ll never find in a single mock draft.

A picture is worth a thousand words, and below you’ll find a detailed visualizations for the top-31 (Dolphins forfeited their 2023 first-round pick) players according to mock draft data collected by Benjamin Robinson at Grinding the Mocks. I’m lucky to have a partnership with Robinson this offseason with access to his data, while also having him join my podcast periodically through draft season to keep us in the loop of recent trends.

You will not find a more comprehensive data set for mock drafts, which is combined with Robinson’s work gauging the prior accuracy of major mock drafters. That work comes together in the “Weighted Mocks” score he has for each draft selection for every prospect. You’ll find that score on a percentage basis on the Y axis. Here’s an explanation of how weighted mocks is calculated from Robinson:

To calculate "Adjusted Mock Drafts", we use "Grinding the Mocks" pick-by-pick mock draft data at Player, Pick, and team level. As the draft order has only just been finalized, this data should become more firm as the draft process goes on.  Player, team, and pick mock drafts are counted and then adjusted accordingly based on the draftnik's historic accuracy and how close the mock draft is from the date of the NFL draft.

Years of draft watching tells us that there is an additional layer of uncertainty missing in terms of a player going at a fully unexpected draft position, especially when any team can trade up or down in the draft. For this first consensus mock run, I’m just presenting the straight numbers based on the weighted mock draft data. As we get closer to the draft, I’ll attempt to add needed uncertainty to the range of possibilities based on historical patterns. Plus, we’ll get deeper and more robust mock draft as the offseason progresses.

Okay, let’s get to the info. The top-31 players are given with their positions, headshots and school logos. The NFL teams are represented by team logos and primary colors.

Anderson is the No. 1 selection in over 50% of the weighted mocks, yet I still think the Bears should consider taking the rare opportunity to add a first-overall quality quarterback prospect. Of course what’s not represented here is the significant possibility the Bears trade out of the pick, and Anderson is selected lower in the draft after quarterbacks go in the first couple selections. The Cardinals are the logical choice in that scenario, and already have the second highest weighted mock percentage.

Young is the consensus QB1 of the class at this stage in the draft process. Things can change a lot in the coming months, but Young has a lead on current lead on the rest of the 2023 quarterback prospects. The vast majority of mocks have Young off the board to the Texans with the second pick, and don’t leave much of a chance he’ll go to any team beyond the Colts at No. 4.