Super Bowl NFL Power Rankings

Two teams remain, providing one of the few Super Bowl matchups that makes even me question the numbers

* The detailed information for power rankings are on the paid subscriber Google sheet (along with other site metrics). You can find previous Power Rankings write-ups on the landing page.

WHAT WE’VE LEARNED IN 2023

First let’s look at the team offensive and defensive efficiencies in 2023, using my adjusted-score methodology to measure performance, and factoring in strength of schedule.

There were some minor shifts in team unit strength week-over-week, but we’re adding one to a 20-game sample (19 for the 49ers) at this point in the season. I decay results based on how old they are, yet earlier-season results still matter - a lot. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense has taken things to another level in their three playoff games, but the public perception that they’re fixed is likely overconfident. Rather than make my own week-by-week efficiency charts, I’ll steal from Ben Baldwin to show the totality of the season for Mahomes by a mix of weekly EPA per play and PFF grading. *All analysts steal, more important is attribution (see Baldwin himself credit Euan Deware on the plot footnote)

The Mahomes run in these playoffs has been magical: all three games above the 90th percentile for PFF grading and averaging 0.35 EPA per play, a better figure than during his 2022 MVP regular season. But looking at the entire season of ups and downs gives a stronger impression that there could be another lull coming. Mahomes was very strong in four-of-six games from Weeks 2-7, then only had one great game in the final nine games of the regular season.

Maybe the Chiefs offense has been solved with the emergence of Rashee Rice and Marquez Valdes-Scantling remembering how to catch a football, or maybe there will be regression in the Super Bowl.

Mahomes has been a postseason stud throughout his career, but previous campaigns saw his playoff brilliance match his elite regular seasons, not vastly exceed them as has happened this year. The chart above shows that the 2023 postseason return to elite efficiency has been driven more by turnover avoidance (zero, so far) and rushing uptick than generating as much value with pure passing. That lack of underlying passing value gives Mahomes less room for error in order to hit the highest levels of efficiency.