Super Bowl LX Patriots-Seahawks: Advanced Review
The Seahawks defense shines in the biggest game of the season, with their offense managing the game and avoiding losses
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
Find previous advanced reviews here
** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
NE vs SEA (-4.5)
I’m sure the film gurus will be able to craft a story of the Seattle Seahawks employing such a brilliant defensive scheme to completely shut down the New England Patriots offense. I’m going to lean more towards a combination of a good scheme and a Patriots offense that wasn’t ready for the competition.
Let’s not forget that the Seahawks defense at home allowed Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense to post 93rd percentile EPA efficiency two weeks ago. The Seahawks defense isn’t unsolvable, but the solution was hidden so deep that the Patriots couldn’t find an answer, the best outcome for great defense play and coaching.
From my perspective, the Patriots played and coached a little scared, concerned about the Seahawks pass rush and running the ball on six of nine first downs in the first half. Perhaps they should have been concerned with Drake Maye taking three sacks on his first nine dropbacks, but that worry doesn’t go away by setting up obvious third down passing situations.
