Running Back & Offensive Line: Winners & Losers of the NFL Combine

Applying modeling based on 15-plus years of combine data to the 2023 NFL draft class

Before the combine, I released the results of historical modeling on the NFL Scouting Combine since 2006 and quantified the effect of NFL value (according to my Plus/Minus metric) and draft position for all measurements and drills. 

In this analysis, I’m going to apply the value models, with a few tweaks, to the results of the 2023 class' combine, focusing on running backs and offensive linemen here, after having analyzed defensive linemen, defensive backs and receivers (wide receivers and tight ends) in previous articles..

I’ll show an updated illustration for the attribute effect — i.e., the impact of outperformance on early-career Plus/Minus (first four seasons) and NFL draft position. The players in the tables below are listed by “Draft Percentile”, or how high the volume predicts they’ll be taken in the draft only by their combine results. You can contrast those to the “+/- Percentile”, which is more focused on NFL value.

For background on the methodology for the analysis and top-10 historical results at each position, check out my posts on which drills/measurements matter for offensive and defensive positions.

RUNNING BACKS

I adjusted the running back model to account for allow for missing variables than in the “what matters” piece from last week. Unfortunately, many running backs aren’t participating in the agility drills the last two years, with only two running them in this combine. Three-cone still has the biggest signal for NFL value measured by Plus/Minus, but the adjusted model gives huge draft position attribute effects for weight-adjusted speed.

The model also finds a slight negative correlation between weight and forty speed and Plus/Minus value, likely due to the outsized importance of receiving value in the NFL. All else equal, it isn’t better to be smaller and slower. It’s just that those relatively traits are more common in running backs who have added the most Plus/Minus value, driven by their pass catching usage and ability.

Deneric Prince has the top draft score, nearing the 90th percentile. His 4.41 forty at 216 pounds doing most of the work. Prince’s usage at Tulsa left a lot to be desired from a prospect production standpoint, never totaling more in any season than 750 rushing yards or nine receptions. Rushing production is an opportunity based, so I’m going to keep an eye on the mock draft buzz around Prince in the coming weeks. He’s really the only early down sized back who tested like an outstanding athlete, other than the one everyone is projecting for the first round.