Pre-NFL Draft 2023 Wide Receiver Prospect Model

Using college stats, combine metrics and estimated draft positions to project the 2023 wide receiver class into the NFL

Credit: Ian Cox

In this analysis of 2023 NFL Draft prospects at the wide receiver position, I’m going to detail the quantitative process behind the results, including the importance of different features and how estimated draft position (via GrindingTheMocks), early declare status, athletic traits and production markers all blend into a single prediction. In this case, the prediction will be focused on fantasy football results, specifically the number of top-6, -12, -24, and -36 weekly fantasy finishes over a prospects first three NFL seasons. We could extend the window further to cover a player’s entire career, but the point in the real NFL draft and fantasy rookie drafts is to see a return on investment earlier rather than later.

While my research shows that NFL Scouting Combine results have a significantly greater impact on draft position than actual NFL value and production, you can’t afford to fade the crowd coalescing around their favored prospects. Despite tremendous advancements in our ability to collect data on college prospects, the most meaningful single variable in determining NFL success is draft position. 

This analysis will cover all wide receivers from the 2023 class currently with an estimated draft position in the top-100, with one later prospect highlighted as a potential sleeper.

METHODOLOGY

This analysis uses what is known as an ensemble model, or a blend of the results from different models which are then blended together to form a single, and hopefully more precise, final prediction. One of the models is tree-based, the other linear.

The features for each wide receiver in the models are as follows, ordered by relative importance and statistical significance. The stats are from the prospects’ best statistical season in which they played at least five games and logged at least 25 targets. All of the numbers are calculated only using games in which the prospect played:

• Draft position

• Career receiving yards per team pass attempt (proxy for yards per route run)

• Early declare status

• Max-season receiving yards per team pass attempt

• Final-season share of team touchdown receptions

• Yards per reception

• 40-yard dash time

• Weight

Draft position is the most important feature in predicting fantasy success for wide receivers, followed by production and then athletic measurements. Looking specifically at the calculated importances in the tree-based model, draft position is nearly double any other feature.

After draft position, the most most important features differentiating wide receiver prospects are career efficiency in receiving yards per team attempt and early declare status. I explained before why career numbers can be more meaningful than those from a prospect’s final season, and early declare status has also offer a lot of signal for finding undervalued receivers who didn’t play all the way through they’re four seasons.

Higher-drafted wide receivers at top programs are more often coming from receiving groups with two, three and even four drafted players, thereby diluting their shares of team production due to split workloads. To account for this, I adjusted up the career shares of team receiving yards and touchdowns for wide receivers by the number of wide receivers they played with during their careers. Each is assumed to be drafted in the top 100 picks.