Post-NFL Draft 2023 Running Back Prospect Model

Using college stats, combine metrics and draft positions to project the 2023 running back class into the NFL

Before the NFL draft, I detailed the methodology and published the results of my running back prospect model using estimated draft positions from Grinding the Mocks. Now we have the real thing, and many model scores and rankings have shifted with the updated information on how the NFL views the 2023 running back class.

Before jumping to the results, I’ll briefly restate the primary drivers of the model and lay out the variables that are feed into it. The model score is the percentile among receivers from draft classes going back to 2009 for projected fantasy football results, specifically the number of top-6, -12, -24, and -36 weekly fantasy finishes over a prospects first three NFL seasons. We could extend the window further to cover a player’s entire career, but the point in the real NFL draft and fantasy rookie drafts is to see a return on investment earlier rather than later.

While my research shows that NFL Scouting Combine results have a significantly greater impact on draft position than actual NFL value and production, you can’t afford to fade the crowd coalescing around their favored prospects. Despite tremendous advancements in our ability to collect data on college prospects, the most meaningful single variable in determining NFL success is draft position. 

METHODOLOGY

This analysis uses what is known as an ensemble model, or a blend of the results from different models which are then blended together to form a single, and hopefully more precise, final prediction. One of the models is tree-based, the other linear.

The features for each running back in the models are as follows, ordered by relative importance and statistical significance. The stats are from the prospects’ best statistical season in which they played at least five games and logged at least 25 carries. All of the numbers are calculated only using games in which the prospect played, and all numbers are from each prospect’s best statistical college season:

• Draft position

• Share of team receptions

• Share of total (rushing & receiving) yards

• Share of total touchdowns

• Share of rushing attempts

• Weight

• 40-yard dash time (Pro Day discounted 0.03 seconds)

Draft position is the most important feature in predicting fantasy success for running backs, as is encompasses the total evaluation of each player and can dictate NFL opportunity. Looking specifically at the calculated importances in the tree-based model, draft position is more than double any other feature (more significant than for my wide receiver prospect model), with team reception share the second most significant feature. Size and speed get a ton of hype during the combine cycle, but aren’t particularly important for future NFL success, outside of boosting draft positions.

Below I detail the percentile scores for the model (percentile for top fantasy week projections among the last several years of prospects), and the exact stats for each prospect. There is really one near elite tier of prospects this class, with another few names showing promise, and then most of the rest somewhat interchangeable.

What isn’t part of the model is opportunity, which I’ll discussed in the write-ups below the tiers.

2023 RUNNING BACK CLASS

The obvious top-tier stays the same coming out of the NFL draft, now with even stronger model scores. Bijan Robinson went 10 spots above his estimated draft position based on mock drafts, and Jahmyr Gibbs went a full 28 drop positions earlier than estimated just a couple weeks ago.

Robinson and Gibbs rank fifth and sixth in model score among all running backs in the data sample (draft classes 2009-2023), below only Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, and Leonard Fournette.

At 215 pounds, Robinson has a clearer pathway to a workhorse role, despite the presence on the Falcons’ roster of surprisingly good 2022 fifth-round pick Tyler Allgeier. The Falcon had one of the most efficient and high-volume run games in the NFL last season, with 454 running back carries gaining 2,207 yards (4.9 YPC) and 13 touchdowns. No matter who leads the backfield this season, the Falcons’ rushing success was likely to regress, but still remain as one of the strongest in the NFL.

Gibbs’ arrival trigger the departure of 2021 second-round pick D’Andre Swift, opening up a strong receiving role. The Lions have targeted running backs more than 115 times in each of the last two seasons, and offseason addition David Montgomery profiles more of the early down thumper than receiver.