NFL Week 18 Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE)

Dak Prescott leads in total adjusted EPA entering the NFL's final week, Brock Purdy will finish as the per-play efficiency leader

Check out the first the first installment of the Luck-Adjusted Efficiency numbers (free post) to get more details on the methodology below. I also have lots of information in past posts on Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE):

• AQE introduction

• Update to 2.0

• Updated to 3.0

• All previous write-ups

2023 SCHEME/LUCK-ADJUSTED RESULTS

The plot below shows each quarterback who has 250 play involvements this season (dropbacks and designed runs), minus a handful who have been injured for the season and not played recently. There are two points for each quarterback: 1) The team-colored dot for the actual EPA per play the quarterback has this season and 2) The quarterback headshot representing the adjusted quarterback efficiency (EPA/play). There is also a team-colored line linking the two on each row.

I made a couple tweaks to the methodology this week to enhance the YAC and SOS adjustments, also giving a bigger positive adjustments to fumbles lost listed as “aborted” in the official NFL play description, as they’re credited to quarterbacks when really a shared responsibility with centers on snaps and running backs on handoffs.