NFL Week 17 Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE)

Josh Allen takes the total adjusted EPA lead, and I'm moving closer and closer to making him my MVP choice

Check out the first the first installment of the Luck-Adjusted Efficiency numbers (free post) to get more details on the methodology below. I also have lots of information in past posts on Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE):

• AQE introduction

• Update to 2.0

• Updated to 3.0

• All previous write-ups

ESPN (finally) dropped its receiver tracking-based metrics on a new analytics website. Due to controversy and some issues that I have with the methodology, I’ve decided to exclude them from the calculation this year. I think mental adjustments for perceived receiver quality is more usual than using questionable “open” scores. Plus, I already incorporate YAC above expected into the analysis, which captures some of the receiver qualities that boost quarterback results.

2023 SCHEME/LUCK-ADJUSTED RESULTS

The plot below shows each quarterback who has 250 play involvements this season (dropbacks and designed runs), minus a handful who have been injured for the season and not played recently. There are two points for each quarterback: 1) The team-colored dot for the actual EPA per play the quarterback has this season and 2) The quarterback headshot representing the adjusted quarterback efficiency (EPA/play). There is also a team-colored line linking the two on each row.