Unexpected Points

Unexpected Points

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Unexpected Points
Unexpected Points
NFL Week 15 Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE)
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NFL Week 15 Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE)

The adjusted numbers can help you make the MVP case for Brock Purdy or Dak Prescott in a much better manner than a few clips or skewed stats

Kevin Cole's avatar
Kevin Cole
Dec 14, 2023
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Unexpected Points
Unexpected Points
NFL Week 15 Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE)
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49ers' Brock Purdy and Cowboys' Dak Prescott set historic records in NFL  Wild Card round | Marca

Check out the first the first installment of the Luck-Adjusted Efficiency numbers (free post) to get more details on the methodology below. I also have lots of information in past posts on Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE):

  • AQE introduction

  • Update to 2.0

  • Updated to 3.0

  • All previous write-ups

ESPN (finally) dropped its receiver tracking-based metrics on a new analytics website. Due to controversy and some issues that I have with the methodology, I’ve decided to exclude them from the calculation this year. I think mental adjustments for perceived receiver quality is more usual than using questionable “open” scores. Plus, I already incorporate YAC above expected into the analysis, which captures some of the receiver qualities that boost quarterback results.

2023 LUCK-ADJUSTED RESULTS

The plot below shows each quarterback who has 150 play involvements this season (dropbacks and designed runs). There are two points for each quarterback: 1) The team-colored dot for the actual EPA per play the quarterback has this season and 2) The quarterback headshot representing the adjusted quarterback efficiency (EPA/play). There is also a team-colored line linking the two on each row.

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