NFL draft first-round analytical review

Using consensus data from mock drafts and big boards, plus surplus value considerations, to analyze the first round of the NFL draft

We’ve finally gotten to and finished the first round of the NFL draft. There will be a ton of content hitting the streets in the next 12 hours to tell you the feeling and opinions on which teams made the best use of their draft capital.

In this post, I eschew the vibes-based analysis that dominates NFL media and judge the first round on explicit metrics that matter. I leveraged the excellent weighted mock draft data from Grinding the Mocks and consensus media Big Board data aggregated from Jack Lichtenstein on his beautifully website. In addition, I estimated the NFL value and subtracted the contractual commitment of each pick to determine the player’s surplus value, or value you’d have to pay in free agency over what the rookie contract demands. I went through this exercise earlier this month building a more useful Big Board using Sports Info Solutions draft grading and positional contract data from Over the Cap.

Let’s get to the data. The first section below has a table with a row for every pick. It has the pick number, the mock draft-based estimated draft position, the consensus big board ranking, and the estimated values of the prospect, his contract amount and the surplus value to the team. I also have a plot showing the differences better the actual pick numbers and the consensus opinions on mocks and big boards. Let’s get to the data.

FIRST 15 PICKS OF THE ROUND

The “Value” number is my estimate for salary cap equivalent for the player based on positional value and historical trends for prospects taken at his draft slot. Contract is the annual amount due, and surplus value is the difference that the team gains acquiring the player through the draft.

The first two picks were Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud, the two names we would have expected at the beginning of the draft cycle, before NFL insiders and the rest of us were lead astray by the rumor-mill. Stroud provides slightly more surplus value than Young because he’ll make slightly less on his rookie contract. But I’m leaning more towards Young as the likely better player. He was my QB1, and he showed the ability to perform well under pressure, a key for the transition to the NFL.

The Texans traded up from 12 to 3, giving up 2024 first and third round picks, plus the second pick in the second round this year. They get back the 105 this year along with the rights to Will Anderson, the top defensive pick in the draft. While Anderson’s NFL value is the highest for any non-quarterback, his surplus value, or value over contract, ranks far lower. He’s going to make nearly $10 million per season, and the Texans gave up the equivalent of current high first round pick for the rights to move up. Maybe Anderson will be that much better than any other defensive prospect, but history tells us that the player they could have taken at 12 would likely only be marginally be worse.

Anthony Richardson offers are much surplus value as Young, despite going a few picks later. I ranked him as my QB2, but concerns about his short-area accuracy are very real. Richardson was a decently big reach by consensus mock and big board data.

We gotta talk running backs. The two worst picks by surplus value were Bijan Robinson at No. 8 to the Falcons and Jahmyr Gibbs at No. 12 to the Lions. The Seahawks are getting a lot of praise for their first round, but Devon Witherspoon as a cornerback is more of a tier 2 non-quarterback position according to my research in the NFL, and any non-quarterback in the top-5 is going to carry lower surplus value due to higher salary costs in his rookie contract.

Will McDonald was the biggest reach in the top-half of the round according to consensus rankings, taken by the Jets roundly 20 picks earlier than expectations. Edge is a tier 1 value in the first round, but you have to think the Jets would have been able to get McDonald while moving back and possibly getting some draft capital in the process.

SECOND HALF OF THE ROUND

Jack Campbell was the second big reach for the Lions versus consensus. The Lions got good value trading back from No. 7 to 12, but it looks like they blew it all on their two first round picks. The Chiefs had the second biggest reach selecting Felix Anudike-Uzomah 24 picks ahead of his estimate mock draft position.

The second half of the round was full of tier 2 positions (CB & WR), making up seven of the first 10 picks starting at No. 16. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jordan Addison were my WR1 and WR2, but I was lower on Quentin Johnston and Zay Flowers.

Looking spatially at the value and steals, it’s all laid out in the plot below. As is normally the case with early picks, there will many more reaches than steals.

The Lions are the obvious loser of the first round according to value versus consensus, with their two pick taken a combined 44 spots before mock draft expectations.

The Eagles did give up a fourth round pick to move only one spot, but Jalen Carter was one of the biggest values of the round. Then they came back and got an even bigger value by consensus big boards in Nolan Smith.

The “steals” were Jaxon Smith-Njigba for the Seahawks, Christian Gonzalez for the Patriots and Myles Murphy for the Bengals. We shouldn’t get too excited about steals, as the research shows they don’t perform much better than other picks. You only need one team to make an error to lose value reaching for a player. You need several teams to make errors to find a true steal in the draft. Logically and empirically, the former is more likely.