NFC West: Projections Versus The Market

The division looks like a one-team race. But it depends on how much uncertainty you build into the 49ers quarterback play

The uncertainty of Brock Purdy’s projection is the biggest factor in the division

Last week, I published the final numbers and methodology explanation for the Unexpected Points Power Rankings headed into Week 1 of the 2023 season. As often happens this time of year, I already tweaked them slightly to widen the projected power rankings, which represent the expected points differential for each team versus a league-average opponent on a neutral field.

None of the projections have moved by more than 0.5 points, but they’re now a little closer to the market range. As much as I trust the testing of my numbers, I’ve always found it useful to regress to the market. That said, I’m still generally lower/higher on the teams near the ends of the distribution of the market, reflecting what I believe is an appropriate level of uncertainty before the season even begins. As the season progresses and I become more confident in my projections, the expectations for top/bottom teams with spread out even further from league average.

I’m going to go through each division in a series of posts. Below I’ll compare my numbers to the market for the NFC West, and give context into why they differ (if they differ), with an emphasis on what are the most uncertain assumptions in the projections. Previous posts:

• NFC East

• NFC North

• NFC South

NFC WEST BY THE NUMBERS

I project the NFC West as one-team race for the division title, aligning with bitting markets that give the San Francisco 49ers a 63.5% probability of winning the division, the highest of any team in the NFL.