NFC South: Projections Versus The Market

A division I like more than most, with the easiest sets of schedules in the NFL

Baker Mayfield and the Bucs might be one of the mid-season redemption stories this offseason

Early, I published the final numbers and methodology explanation for the Unexpected Points Power Rankings headed into Week 1 of the 2023 season. As often happens this time of year, I have tweaked them slightly already to widen the projected power rankings, which represent the expected points differential for each team versus a league-average opponent on a neutral field.

None of the projections have moved by more than 0.5 points, but they’re now a little closer to the market range. As much as I trust the testing of my numbers, I’ve always found it useful to regress to the market. That said, I’m still generally lower/higher on the teams near the ends of the distribution of the market, reflecting what I believe is an appropriate level of uncertainty before the season even begins. As the season progresses and I become more confident in my projections, the expectations for top/bottom teams with spread out even further from league average.

I’m going to go through each division in a series of posts. Below I’ll compare my numbers to the market for the NFC South, and give context into why they differ (if they differ), with an emphasis on what are the most uncertain assumptions in the projections. Previous posts:

• NFC East

• NFC North

NFC SOUTH BY THE NUMBERS

The Atlanta Falcons have become a sexy pick to win the division in the media, but I think the markets are right to have the New Orleans Saints as the strong favorite. My numbers are higher on the Saints than the market’s 44% implied probability to win the NFC South, but not substantially so. As you’ll see below, I’m higher on the entire division than the market. The consensus view on the division appears to be a top-tier with the Saints and Falcons. The reality is that the likelihood that the Falcons outperform the Saints is lower than either the Carolina Panthers or Tampa Bay Buccaneers jumping above the Falcons. Combining my sanguine view on the fundamentals of the NFC South and the easiest schedules in the NFL this season (as well as we can predict at this point), you get the possibility that a couple teams in the division could surprise this season.

According to betting markets, the Saints, Falcons and Panthers have the three easiest schedules in the NFL, and the Buccaneers’ first-place schedule only moves them up to 25th most difficult. Intra-division games are relatively weak, and the NFC South faces the two weakest divisions in the NFL in 2023: the AFC South and NFC North. Don’t be shocked by the coming narratives of redemption for Derek Carr or Baker Mayfield, or breakouts for Desmond Ridder or Bryce Young based on an “unexpected” winning record midway through the season.