NFC North: Projections Versus The Market

The Lions lead the weakest division in the conference, without much separating the Vikings, Packers and Bears

Kirk Cousins isn’t the problem, but he’s not good enough to lift the Vikings even to average

Early, I published the final numbers and methodology explanation for the Unexpected Points Power Rankings headed into Week 1 of the 2023 season. As often happens this time of year, I have tweaked them slightly already to widen the projected power rankings, which represent the expected points differential for each team versus a league-average opponent on a neutral field.

None of the projections have moved by more than 0.5 points, but they’re now a little closer to the market range. As much as I trust the testing of my numbers, I’ve always found it useful to regress to the market. That said, I’m still generally lower/higher on the teams near the ends of the distribution of the market, reflecting what I believe is an appropriate level of uncertainty before the season even begins. As the season progresses and I become more confident in my projections, the expectations for top/bottom teams with spread out even further from league average.

I’m going to go through each division in a series of posts, starting with the NFC East yesterday. Below I’ll compare my numbers to the market for the NFC North, and give context into why they differ (if they differ), with an emphasis on what are the most uncertain assumptions in the projections.

NFC NORTH BY THE NUMBERS

I only have the Detriot Lions team as above average by power rating, though near the middle of the pack for the entire NFL. In aggregate, the NFC North has the worst total power ranking in the NFC, and second worst division in the entire NFL.

Important context for what to expect from actual results in the coming season is the relatively easy set of schedules in the division, with the Lions, Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears all facing bottom-10 NFL schedules. A good portion of those weaker schedules are from facing each other in six games this year, along with four games against a poorer NFC South.

The Minnesota Vikings have a significantly tougher schedule than the rest of the division, having to face a handful of fellow 2022 division-winners: Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals. Because of their significantly more difficult schedule, I have the Packers with a slightly better probability of winning the division (roughly 22%) as the Vikings, whereas markets have the Vikings and Packers at 23.5% and 17.9%, respectively.