NFC East: Projections Versus The Market

Comparing the proprietary Unexpected Points Power Rankings and projections for NFC East teams to those derived through market betting lines

There are hints that Daniel Jones and Giants will surprise many this season

Yesterday, I published the final numbers and methodology explanation for the Unexpected Points Power Rankings headed into Week 1 of the 2023 season. As often happens this time of year, I have tweaked them slightly already to widen the projected power rankings, which represent the expected points differential for each team versus a league-average opponent on a neutral field.

None of the projections have moved by more than 0.5 points, but they’re now a little closer to the market range. As much as I trust the testing of my numbers, I’ve always found it useful to regress to the market. That said, I’m still generally lower/higher on the teams near the ends of the distribution of the market, reflecting what I believe is an appropriate level of uncertainty before the season even begins. As the season progresses and I become more confident in my projections, the expectations for top/bottom teams with spread out even further from league average.

I’m going to go through each division in a series of posts, starting with the NFC East today. Below I’ll compare my numbers to the market, and give context into why they differ (if they differ), with an emphasis on what are the most uncertain assumptions in the projections.

NFC EAST BY THE NUMBERS