Free Agent Defensive Value: Target Safeties and Linebackers

Historical evidence and the specific projections of this defensive free agent class point to value at a couple position groups

Last week I published my 2023 NFL Plus/Minus projections for every offensive free agent, then a wrap-up post contrasting the projected point-based values to projected contracts. The salary projections came via PFF’s free agency tracker, which estimates average per year (APY) and guarantees for their top-101 free agents.

For defensive players, I’m going to skip the buildup of writing a separate post on each position and get straight to the macro analysis and conclusions on positional value. All of the projections are available on the Unexpected Points paid subscriber Google Sheet, and I’ve included tables at the bottom of the post of the top free agent projections from each defensive position group, though without commentary.

FREE AGENCY DEFENSIVE POSITIONAL VALUE

First we’ll visualize the 2023 defensive free agents by their projections points added according to my NFL Plus/Minus methodology.

The plot below has a point for each defensive player in the 2023 free agent pool, and divides the players by position. I highlighted zero points with a dashed line and the varying width of dots by position are produced using “jitter points”, which is meaningless outside of making it visually easier to see the density of players in a particular range.

The NFL Plus/Minus numbers across the entire league are normalized by position to have net-zero points, so the relationship of each position to the zero line above gives an idea of how the free agent pool for that position relates to the overall league.

For interior defenders (DI) and edge rushers (ED), there are more players projected for negative points than positive, meaning the free agent pool is weaker than the NFL generally. For safeties (S), there are more players above the zero line, while linebackers (LB) and cornerbacks (CB) are more of a mix, with higher-value free agents available at both position.

I excluded three elite-level interior defenders who are officially free agent from the plot. Javon Hargrave, Daron Payne and Dre’Mont Jones have the three highest projections of all defensive free agents, so much so as to skew the results. The Athletic’s Ben Standig reported that Payne will likely be franchised, and there’s decent buzz that Hargrave and Jones will meet the same fate.

PROJECTED SALARIES VERSUS VALUE

Now let’s bring in the PFF contract projections for free agents in their 2023 rankings. I know average per year (APY) isn’t a perfect reflection of contract cost, but it’s a universal measure that is good enough for a broad look at the types of players and positions available at particular cap charges. Each player’s data point is labeled by name and its color reflects the position, helping us intuitively get a feel for positional value versus cost.

I’ve added a trend line for projected APY and projected Plus/Minus for all defensive free agents, and divided the positions into two plots. The first plot is for positions that generally fall below the line, i.e. are poorer values: interior defenders, edge rushers and cornerbacks.

One comment on the trend line before I get into the overvalued positions. The line isn’t very steep, meaning there are diminishing returns to paying more in free agency. A player with a projected $5 million APY contract gives more than half the value of one projected for $15 million APY. Free agency is generally most effective for filling out rosters with good-not-great talent.

Two-thirds of interior defenders are under the line, while nearly 80% of edge rushers and cornerbacks are relatively poor values. Even the edge rushers who show up as values on the plot are of one type: older and having already bounced around a bit in the NFL. That profile is likely a better value than paying up if a higher-end edge makes free agency.

Patrick Peterson has a similar profile and is seen as a potential value for cornerbacks, but the other main value is Jamel Dean, who has by far the most lucrative contract projection for the position.

It isn’t always wrong to sign one of these positions if it’s a need for teams, but you have to know that you’re going against the historical trend of lower value, even if you’re confident in the player-specific evaluation.

Now let's turn to the under valued free agent positions: safeties and linebackers.

There’s a ton of value for linebackers and safeties in the $3 million to $8 million APY range. With only limited shots to fill premium positions in the draft, free agency is the ideal place to find your depth at those roles.

Quiet a few of the values here are also no the older side, but I think the attraction of a younger free agent signing who will become a cornerstone of the franchise is largely a mirage. Most free agents give one or two good years before falling off, so taking the discount on an older player can be worth it.

TOP DEFENSIVE FREE AGENT PROJECTIONS