Final 2024 Consensus NFL Draft Mock

Leveraging hundreds of media and analyst mock drafts to project the consensus picks and range of outcomes through the first round of the 2024 NFL draft

LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) celebrates after a touchdown against Florida during the second half of an NCAA college football game in Baton Rouge, La., Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023. (AP Photo/Derick Hingle)

This is the final version of the consensus mock data, which I first published a few weeks back. This includes mock drafts from media analysts though Monday, April 22nd, when most drop their final versions. Now we’ve collected a lot more mock draft data, solidifying potential landing spots and ranges of outcomes for the top prospects.

I’m expanding this version beyond the first round to the top 45 prospects by estimated draft position. For some prospects who are missing from mocks, the distribution of weighted mocks can be a bit deceiving, i.e. their rankings is much lower than the picks they’ve been mocked to. Prospects are lowered in ranking when they are excluded from mocks, not making the round cutoff.

You will not find a more comprehensive data set for mock drafts than this analysis, which is combined with Benjamin Robinson’s work at Grinding The Mocks which gauges the prior accuracy of established mock drafters. That work comes together in the “Weighted Mocks” score he has for each draft selection for every prospect. You’ll find that score on a percentage basis on the Y axis. Here’s an explanation of how weighted mocks is calculated from Robinson:

To calculate "Adjusted Mock Drafts", we use "Grinding the Mocks" pick-by-pick mock draft data at Player, Pick, and team level. As the draft order has only just been finalized, this data should become more firm as the draft process goes on.  Player, team, and pick mock drafts are counted and then adjusted accordingly based on the draftnik's historic accuracy and how close the mock draft is from the date of the NFL draft.

I’m using those weighted mock scores for each player and each potential selection, visualizing his range of outcomes below. Some players are almost certain to go to a particular team, others could reasonably fall to almost any team.

Okay, let’s get to the info. The top-45 players are given with their positions, headshots and school logos. The NFL teams are represented by team logos and primary colors.

Nothing has changed, other than early offseason mocks fading from the formula which assumed there was some chance Williams would fall beyond the first pick. We all know now that Williams is virtually 100% to be a Chicago Bear this season.

I’ve lowered the threshold for team inclusion in this version with more mocks added to the database. That’s why you’ll see teams showing up with smaller percentages. The larger takeaway is the continued solidification of Jayden Daniels as the likely No. 2 pick.

There appears to be a good degree of uncertainty in mocks, but betting markets currently have the Commander selecting Daniels at an implied probability of around 80%.

Drake Maye is the flip side of Daniel, looking like the third pick to the Patriots. The other likely options are the Commanders fooling everyone and taking him at No. 2 (5-10% market probability) or taking a King’s ransom from the Giants or Vikings.

Marvin Harrison’s projected mock outcome may have changed the least of any player over the last couple weeks. He’s the No. 1 prospect on consensus big boards, meaning he won’t fall much from the 4th pick in any scenario: Some team will be willing to come up and get him.

The potential draft outcomes are more diverse for Mailk Nabers, though the Chargers and Giants dominate the weighted mock percentages.

The Chargers at pick No. 5 are one of the biggest inflection points for predicting the draft. Will they go Nabers, or bookend Joe Alt with young stud Rashawn Slater at offensive tackle? Theoretically, Alt would have less value with the Chargers as the right tackle to Slater’s left, than for another team that needs to fill the most valuable position on the line.

I apologize for the tiny numbers on the plot above, but a significant number of pesky mock drafters from earlier in the offseason saw J.J. McCarthy falling all the way to the second round. While I don’t think that will happen, I’m leaning now towards McCarthy not being a likely trade-up target in the top-5. The gap between Daniels and Maye in Tier 2 of quarterbacks and Tier 3 - which includes McCarthy - shows up in the numbers.

Rome Odunze is fairly stable in projections, as the guy going to wide receiver needy teams after Harrison and Nabers are off the board.

Mock drafters remain very (probably too) confident in Dallas Turner going to the Falcons

No big changes for Brock Bowers in the 5-15 range. There is some growing idea that Bowers could fall to the Bengals at 18, Rams at 19 or Dolphins at 21.