Divisional Round Sunday, Lions-Buccaneers & Bills-Chiefs: Advanced Reviews

The Lions keep marching to the Conference Championship, and the awesome Chiefs offense might be back

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

DET-TB

The Lions are one step closer to the Super Bowl after handling business at home, though the early Conference Championship odds put them as 6.5-point underdogs in San Francisco. The Lions had a game very typical of their season: strong offense and weaker defense. What was different was their reliance on the passing game, dropping back 70% of the time (+18.2% versus expected) after being one of the run-heaviest teams all year. Long story short: it worked. The Lions posted their third highest success rate and fifth best EPA efficiency of the season.