Divisional Round Sunday Football: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Patriots-Texans & Bears-Rams

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

NE (-3) vs HOU

The adjusted score had this as a fairly even contest, while the scoreboard was tilted fairly heavily in favor of the New England Patriots from halftime on. Both offenses struggled, but the Houston Texans made the higher impact mistakes, with their five turnovers outweighing three from the Patriots by 15.9 expected points in terms of value lost.

The contrast is best illustrated by one of the Texans’ giveaway being a pick-6 on 1st & 10 during the middle of the second quarter that cost them 8.0 expected points, Drake Maye’s one interception was a hail mary at the end of the first half that virtually no effect on EPA of win probability (-0.2, -0.5%).