Divisional Round Saturday, Ravens-Texans & 49ers-Packers: Advanced Reviews

Lamar Jackson runs the Ravens into the conference championship (his defense didn't hurt), and the 49ers survive a scare at home

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

BAL-HOU

A convincing win for the Ravens that superficially followed their usual formula (great offense, elite defense), but had some significant differences under the hood. The Ravens defense dominated the Texans on a play-by-play basis, holding them to a 27.8% success rate, only conceding three total points on nine real drives, including a blocked 47-yard field goal.