Divisional Round Saturday: Advanced Reviews

Patrick Mahomes adds to his legendary status, and the Eagles make a strong case they're the best team in the NFC

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

CHIEFS vs JAGUARS

This was the “what if” game. What if Patrick Mahomes stayed completely healthy? (lots of Chiefs bettors like me wondering that. At least I got some closing line value.) What if Christian Kirk doesn’t drop a 50-yard pass? What if Jamal Agnew doesn’t fumble the ball on the Chiefs 3 yard-line?

Without worrying about what could have been, the Chiefs won by 7 points, but were lucky to have that wide of a margin according to the adjusted scores. The Chiefs were roughly an equal team to the Jags, who suffered higher variance negatives like turnovers, especially a receiver fumble.

Outside of the Mahomes ankle injury that almost derailed the Chiefs season, we got what we were hoping for in terms of offense success rates, just not in efficiency. Game had the highest total of the week at 53 points, but looked like it wouldn’t even breach 40 points after three quarters. Despite Mahomes’ injury, the Chiefs leaned into their core strength and dropped back to pass at rate 12% over expectation.

Some key turnovers from the Jaguars kept the score down late, including the most impactful play of the game: Agnew’s fumble on 1st down at the Chiefs’ three yard-line. That one play cost the Jaguars 4.7 expected points and almost 10% win probability.

The Chiefs pass defense was a dominant factor in the game. The Jags were more efficient and successful on designed runs than dropbacks (59% to 49% and +0.3 EPA per play to -0.05. The Jags produced 7 EPA on Trevor Lawrence dropbacks via scrambles, and -4.6 EPA on all other plays.