THE CLAIM
The 5-0 San Francisco 49ers have gotten a boost from offseason addition Mike Evans, and the praise heaped onto the receiver by teammates, coaches and media has been enormous:
Brock Purdy called Evans a “game-changer” who can “make defenses pay”
The Athletic’s film guru Ted Nguyen calls Evans “the skeleton key for the 49ers offense”
KNBR’s Adam Copeland thinks Evans “could have the same impact that Randy Moss did almost 20 years ago” for the New England Patriots.
Is Evans bringing a whole different element to the 49ers passing game, the missing piece for a Super Bowl run?
THE VERDICT - MOSTLY TRUE
While I wouldn’t start etching the 49ers’ name onto the Super Bowl trophy just yet, it’s true that Mike Evans brings a different element to their passing game than previous top targets. Evans’ ability to win before the catch and his dominance as a third-down option are on a different level than what Brock Purdy has had to work with before. But there should be uncertainty about his ability to physically hold up through a long season at age 33.
THE EVIDENCE
Comparing Evans to other 49ers receivers who have been targeted by Purdy at least 40 times, Evans gets the edge in touchdown productivity and EPA per target, though his smaller sample size of five games and 33 targets means those numbers are highly likely to regress.
Obviously having Purdy at quarterback is a major improvement over the cast of characters Evans played with in Tampa, but we should still note that his 1,300+ targets from 2014-2025 averaged +0.52 EPA, still a strong number, but materially lower than his start with the 49ers. For touchdown productivity, Evans averaged 0.60 per game with the Bucs, a strong number, but not what he’s done so far for the 49ers.
Getting beyond the overall numbers and into the areas where Evans thrives, let’s take a look at third-down rates.
