Free Agency Contracts and Value: Target Interior Offensive Line and Tight Ends

Historical evidence and the specific projections of this offensive free agent class point to value at interior offensive line

This week I’ve published my 2023 NFL Plus/Minus projections for every offensive free agent. Projecting value added to the team on the field in important, but it’s only one part of the free agency equation. In a salary cap league, you also have to consider cost, and that’s why I’m going to combine my points-based value projections here with PFF’s contract projections to get a better idea of which specific players and positions generally look like values in free agency this offseason.

You can find the figures and methodologies for the different positional values analyses here:

• Running back

• Wide receiver

• Tight end

• Offensive tackle

• Guard

• Center

POSITIONAL VALUE OVERVIEW

First we’ll visualize the 2023 offensive free agents by their projections points added according to my NFL Plus/Minus methodology. All of the projections are available on the Unexpected Points paid subscriber Google Sheet.

The plot below has a point for each player, and breaks down the players by position. I highlighted zero points with a dashed line and the varying width of dots by position are produced using “jitter points”, which is meaningless outside of making it visually easier to see the density of players in a particular range.