Consensus 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Version 1.0

Quantifying all the shifts in mock draft assumptions following the NFL Combine, the first phase of free agency and some meaningful trades

At the risk of sounding immodest, I believe my data-driven process for this mock produced something more packed with information than any you’ll find anywhere out on the draft-prediction streets. It doesn’t have the details of “why” on every player selection or my personal opinions on the various prospects. But it does have the benefit of the wisdom of crowds, and a layer of uncertainty you’ll never find in a single mock draft.

A picture is worth a thousand words, and below you’ll find detailed visualizations for the top-33 players according to mock draft data collected by Benjamin Robinson at Grinding the Mocks. I’m including the first pick of the second round, as the Panthers don’t have a first-round pick and it will be their top selection. I’m lucky to have a partnership with Robinson this offseason with access to his data, while also having him join my podcast periodically through draft season to keep us in the loop of recent trends.

You will not find a more comprehensive data set for mock drafts, which is combined with Robinson’s work gauging the prior accuracy of major mock drafters. That work comes together in the “Weighted Mocks” score he has for each draft selection for every prospect. You’ll find that score on a percentage basis on the Y axis. Here’s an explanation of how weighted mocks is calculated from Robinson:

To calculate "Adjusted Mock Drafts", we use "Grinding the Mocks" pick-by-pick mock draft data at Player, Pick, and team level. As the draft order has only just been finalized, this data should become more firm as the draft process goes on.  Player, team, and pick mock drafts are counted and then adjusted accordingly based on the draftnik's historic accuracy and how close the mock draft is from the date of the NFL draft.

Years of draft watching tells us that there is an additional layer of uncertainty missing in terms of a player going at a fully unexpected draft position, especially when any team can trade up or down in the draft. For this first consensus mock run, I’m just presenting the straight numbers based on the weighted mock draft data. As we get closer to the draft, I’ll attempt to add needed uncertainty to the range of possibilities based on historical patterns. Plus, we’ll get deeper and more robust mock drafts as the offseason progresses.

We’ve made our way through the NFL Combine, had a major trade the shake up the top of draft boards, and gotten most of the way through free agency. There will be more material news between now and the Day 1 of the draft in late April, but much of the foundation has been set.

Okay, let’s get to the info. The top-33 players are given with their positions, headshots and school logos. The NFL teams are represented by team logos and primary colors.

Nearly all mock drafts have the Bears using their No. 1 pick on Caleb Williams, with a few throwing in trades that would result in Williams going to the Commanders or Patriots. Despite the NFL media leaning into the perception that the Bears were conflicted in the early preseason, this newsletter has always assumed that Williams to the Bears was a sure thing and the Fields-versus-Williams debate was pointless.

Drake Maye is still holding on to the No. 2 position in the consensus mock, but his stock has been falling vis-a-vis Jayden Daniels in recent weeks. The Commanders are still the most likely team to take Maye with the second pick according to recent mock drafts, but the Patriots are very close.

As silly as it seems, the perceptions of Maye and Daniels and their corresponding mock draft positioning will be heavily influenced by their Pro Day performances over the next few weeks. I tend to fade the idea that a seemingly lock-in top-2 pick like Maye will actually fall as much as motivated media assumes (it’s a better story to hype up Daniels), but the NFL could also be leaning in that direction. Betting markets currently have Maye as the favorite to be the No. 3 pick (-135, 57%), and Daniels at No. 2 (-170, 63%).

It’s a virtual tie in the consensus mock for Jayden Daniels to land in Washington or New England, with material results showing the Giants, Falcons or Vikings landing him, both through trading up and having him fall. I’d be nervous about Daniels’ age (turns 24 in December) biasing his late-career success, but I’m also an advocate that teams should be more liberal with early picks on quarterbacks.

The selections for Marvin Harrison Jr. are tightly packed near the top of the draft, an impressive feat when so many assume quarterbacks will be taken 1-2-3. I’m not buying the chance that the Bears or Patriots pass on a quarterback, but some mock drafters have gotten creative and see a chance the Bears will trade down.

The consensus is that the Cardinals will select Harrison 4th, presumably after Williams, Maye and Daniels are the top-3 picks. There’s certainly a lot of smoke out that a team could trade up with the Cardinals to get another quarterback at No. 4, which I think would be a smart transaction for a Cardinals team needing to fill a lot of holes throughout the roster. Either way, it looks highly unlikely that Harrison will fall further than No. 6. Markets agree, with Harrison having implied probability over 65% of being the No. 4 pick.