Conference Championship NFL Power Rankings
The top-3 2025 performers are into the Conference Championships, and how do we adjust for the Broncos' new quarterback?
For more info you can find the archive of previous Power Rankings posts, including the Week 1 rankings that detail much of the methodology of coming up with the rest of the rankings throughout the season.
In this post, I’m going to walk through how my team-strength model views every team offensively and defensively for their 2025 performance going into the Conference Championships, plus details on which teams really belong in the playoffs and exactly how strong they are versus each other (points-based model).
TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STRENGTH
*Downloadable power ratings/rankings available in the paid subscriber Google sheet.
The Conference Championships include the three best performing teams by adjusted efficiency through the 2025 regular and postseasons, then there’s the Denver Broncos. Before losing their starting quarterback, the Broncos were a half-tier below the remaining competition, with a strong defense, but only slightly better than average offense.
The primary question hanging over the AFC Championship matchup with the New England Patriots is how to quantify the downgrade from Bo Nix to Jarrett Stidham. Nix was roughly an average quarterback in EPA efficiency this season, slightly worse using my adjustments. The primary negative adjustment for Nix this year was his reliance on receiver yards-after-catch, a trait that should be more transferable to a backup than making accurate throws down the field.
