Conference Championship NFL Power Rankings

My numbers disagree with the markets in one big way: The 49ers are still clearly the best team in the NFL

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WHAT WE’VE LEARNED IN 2023

First let’s look at the team offensive and defensive efficiencies in 2023, using my adjusted-score methodology to measure performance, and factoring in strength of schedule.

It shouldn’t come as a huge surprise if you’ve been following my numbers that the 49ers are still above the rest. But the public perceptions have shifted mightily week-over-week. The Divisional Round featured a shaky performance from Brock Purdy and the 49ers against the Packers, plus Lamar Jackson and Ravens crushing the upstart Texans and Patrick Mahomes returning to all-world form against the Bills.

This confluence of recent events, along with general skepticism around how good Purdy is vis-a-vis the two-time MVPs (I’m counting 2023 for Jackson already). My numbers agree that we should have more confidence in Mahomes and Jackson than Purdy, even if the latter was the most efficient quarterback in the NFL this season. But it comes down to a matter of degree, and how we think about fundamental quality of the player versus results. Looking strictly at historical EPA results, my Bayesian quarterback rankings finished the season with Mahomes at No. 1, and Jackson and Purdy at a virtual tie for 4th and 5th.

My numbers agree that Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL, and it would be easy to incorporate PFF grades or other measures to put Jackson above Purdy. Yet, it’s not a big difference between Jackson and Purdy. Even if we think Jackson is a better quarterback, it doesn’t mean the best projection is for him to have better efficiency. If you see the 49ers offense as hugely elevating Purdy’s performance, that offense will still largely be there going forward. If Deebo Samuel can’t go, it will hurt the 49ers offensive performance, but at least they’ll know during the week that his status is in question and build ways around it, unlike last week.

Even last week’s performance for the 49ers offense was a lot better by the numbers than perception, with the third highest EPA per play (Chiefs and Ravens slightly higher) of any Divisional Round team at strong +0.17. Purdy’s PFF grade was bad (59.7), but it’s not as if we’ll be shocked if he continues to outperform grading with actual on-field results. The 49ers also had a much tougher matchup against the Packers than the Ravens against the Texans. I’m inclined to not overreact and stick with the 49ers as the best team in the NFL, though it’s probably closer than my numbers estimate.

THE 2023 POWER RANKINGS AND RATINGS

Below visualizes the NFL ranked by what I’m calling “Power Rating”, or the estimates of each team’s point differential playing a league-average opponent on a neutral field.