Conference Championship: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Broncos-Patriots & Seahawks-Rams

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

DEN vs NE (-3.5)

I guess you could call this a “gritty” win for the New England Patriots over the Denver Broncos is a second-half snowstorm, with a healthy dose of poor offensive play on both sides. The Patriots offense was better (less bad) in about every advanced metric, but only marginally so.

Like many tight contests, the differences in final scores came down to a few plays, specifically a failed 4th & 1 try for the Broncos and a Patriots takeaway that set up their only touchdown. The Patriots also narrowly converted their own 4th & 1 sneak, which ended up somewhat moot when their drive quickly stalled and they kicked a short field goal. Both teams missed two field goals, though the combined loss for the Patriots was -4.8 EPA to -5.4 for the Broncos.