Conference Championship: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Eagles-Commanders & Chiefs-Bills

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

PHI (-6) vs WAS

I thought coming into this game that the Washington Commanders’ defense was the weak link that could eventually sink them, and it was partially the problem, along with enormous turnover losses. The Philadelphia Eagles were substantially better than the Commanders by the fundamental metrics, though not nearly to the degree shown on the final scoreboard. The difference in adjusted and actual scores is partially due to the Eagles advantages in higher variance aspects of play, and partially due to adding on additional points when the game was already essentially over in “garbage time”.

Fumbles losses are viewed as particularly random by the adjusted scores model, and the Commanders went 0-for-3 recovering their fumbles in this game, while the Eagles offense kept the ball secure. Those fumble losses were the first, second and fourth biggest impact plays by EPA in the game, totaling 14.5 expected points down the drain.