AFC West: Projections Versus The Market

The Chiefs are out in front, with my numbers skeptical of the Chargers completely turning the page on a tough 2022

You can always count on Patrick Mahomes. But the rest of the Chiefs roster is more fragile than ever.

Last week, I published the final numbers and methodology explanation for the Unexpected Points Power Rankings headed into Week 1 of the 2023 season. As often happens this time of year, I already tweaked them slightly to widen the projected power rankings, which represent the expected points differential for each team versus a league-average opponent on a neutral field.

None of the projections have moved by more than 0.5 points, but they’re now a little closer to the market range. As much as I trust the testing of my numbers, I’ve always found it useful to regress to the market. That said, I’m still generally lower/higher on the teams near the ends of the distribution of the market, reflecting what I believe is an appropriate level of uncertainty before the season even begins. As the season progresses and I become more confident in my projections, the expectations for top/bottom teams with spread out even further from league average.

I’m going to go through each division in a series of posts. Below I’ll compare my numbers to the market for the AFC South, and give context into why they differ (if they differ), with an emphasis on what are the most uncertain assumptions in the projections. Previous posts:

• NFC East

• NFC North

• NFC South

• NFC West

• AFC East

• AFC North

• AFC South

I was high on the Kansas City Chiefs the second-half of last season, and that positivity is riding into 2023. I do have my concerns about the fragility of the receivers, with Travis Kelce in his age-34 season, and the loss of unspectacular-but-reliable JuJu Smith-Schuster.