AFC South: Projections Versus The Market

The worst division in the NFL is also one of the most difficult to predict

Trevor Lawrence leads the best team in the AFC South, but still has some question marks about his game

Last week, I published the final numbers and methodology explanation for the Unexpected Points Power Rankings headed into Week 1 of the 2023 season. As often happens this time of year, I already tweaked them slightly to widen the projected power rankings, which represent the expected points differential for each team versus a league-average opponent on a neutral field.

None of the projections have moved by more than 0.5 points, but they’re now a little closer to the market range. As much as I trust the testing of my numbers, I’ve always found it useful to regress to the market. That said, I’m still generally lower/higher on the teams near the ends of the distribution of the market, reflecting what I believe is an appropriate level of uncertainty before the season even begins. As the season progresses and I become more confident in my projections, the expectations for top/bottom teams with spread out even further from league average.

I’m going to go through each division in a series of posts. Below I’ll compare my numbers to the market for the AFC South, and give context into why they differ (if they differ), with an emphasis on what are the most uncertain assumptions in the projections. Previous posts:

• NFC East

• NFC North

• NFC South

• NFC West

• AFC East

• AFC North

The AFC South is clearly the worst division in the NFL by my numbers, with an average power rating of -2.7 (next closest is the NFC North at -1.7), and the Jacksonville Jaguars are the only above average team. I’m not as high on the Jaguars as a lot of pundits, and even the market, though to a lesser degree. Even if I’m right and Jags are fairly average, they still have around a 60% chance to win the division, and their chance to win a wild card spot are also decent (another 12%). The first-place schedule in this poor of a division is still the seventh softest overall by my numbers.